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How Long will Oil Last? - BillDoll.com
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How long will oil last?
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How long will oil last?
While it appears to be an easy question to answer at first sight because it is after all a matter of addition (add up all the oil reserves worldwide) & subtraction (subtract from the total oil reserves our annual consumption), the answer it seems, is really more complicated than that.
The reasons why it is not an easy question to answer are as follows:
Now you know why this question belongs to the “Billion Dollar Question” category!
In this section of BillDoll.com, we will try to provide you with the various researches done and references that will attempt to answer this billion dollar question. We will attempt to do this by analysing each of the five aspects mentioned above.
This page – like all the other pages at BillDoll.com, The Billion Dollar Questions Site - is a work-in-progress and stuff will get added regularly.
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See also the following questions from Billion Dollar Questions Reference
Recoverable Oil Deposits
The following links provide data on what the known, recoverable oil reserves are:
Future New Sources of Oil
There are two ways in which we could find new sources of oil. One, by discovering new reservoirs of oil / gas. Two, by being able to extract products similar to oil – such as oil shale.
Research & Breakthrough Technologies in Oil Recovery
The amount of oil that can be considered recoverable is also dependent on the current state of extraction technologies. It will hence be useful to have a look at the inventions and breakthroughs that are taking place in the oil recovery domain.
Technology is expanding the industry’s ability to find and extract oil – in some cases finding new fields once thought to be fully exploited. Some of the examples of technological breakthroughs are:
Web Resources for Oil Recovery Technology Inventions & Research
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Substitutes Emerging for Oil
A variety of alternative energy sources are being explored. This section provides links for the main sources being explored.
See also:
World Oil Consumption
See the following links for data on the past and future trends in world oil consumption:
Other Web References for Peak Oil
Other Updates & Inputs
Content Derived from Wikipedia Article on Oil Depletion
Oil depletion is the inescapable result of extracting and consuming oil faster than it can be replaced. No one knows for sure when the long-term decline of oil reserves will begin, or what the consequences will be. The Hubbert peak is an influential theory concerning the long-term rate of conventional Petroleum (and other fossil fuel) extraction and depletion. The Hubbert peak is named for United States geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who created a model of known reserves, and proposed the theory. The concept of passing the peak-point, so that society is on the downward side of the oil supply curve, is also referred to as Peak oil or the end of cheap oil. Many predictions have been made about the potential implications of passing the peak. These estimates range from warnings of a doomsday scenario created by long term lack of growth to faith that the market economy will allow a relatively smooth transition to other energy sources through technological solutions.
In addition, the globally dominant and most widely accepted scientific view is that combustion of oil and other fossil fuels is causing climate change, and that the potentially-catastrophic effects of this require alternatives to oil regardless of any decline in oil supply. Accordingly, some take the view that oil depletion does not matter, regardless of the interest of geophysicists in the subject, as the effects of climate change will be felt long before the effects of oil depletion. However others argue that oil depletion will make it harder to have the resources to fight global warming, especially as people will be forced to use more polluting forms of energy (such as coal) in order to sustain economic growth. The debate as to the timing of any effects of climate change depend on a number of, often unknown, environmental factors. In practical terms, both climate change and oil depletion are simultaneously driving the need for alternatives to oil.
Mechanisms of oil depletion
Oil depletion occurs in a predictable fashion based on geological principles which apply in varying degrees to all oil fields. The shape of the decline curves can vary depending on particular circumstances and government policies, but all oil fields decline over time, and the geological mechanisms involved ensure the fields will decline in a relatively predictable manner.
Oil well production decline
Typical oil well production decline curve.Oil wells tend to follow an exponential decline curve[citation needed]. Produced at their natural rates, oil wells will start off by producing at a high rate and then will decline rapidly from that rate and eventually level off at a low rate of slow decline[citation needed].
Each well drains the oil reserves in its portion of the oil field at a high rate because there is lots of oil available and reservoir pressures are high. As pressures decline and the oil in the immediate vicinity is reduced, the rate will fall, but will gradually level out as the production rate falls and pressure decline becomes slower. The curve will never actually reach zero, but at some point the well will no longer produce enough oil to cover its production costs and will be shut in as non-economic. In the United States, these low-production wells are referred to as marginal or stripper wells and receive special tax breaks to encourage companies to keep operating them as long as possible.
This standard decline curve can be affected by a number of factors which can modify its shape:
Oil field production decline
Typical oil field production decline curve.An oil field covers a fixed area. If oil wells are drilled in this area at a fixed distance apart at a steady rate, a curve such as at right will result. Production will rise rapidly at first, but start to level off as the wells which have already been drilled begin to decline. Eventually, when the field is completely drilled out, production will go into a sharp decline as all wells are now in decline. This decline will level off and production can continue on for a very long time. A number of oil fields in the U.S. have been producing for over 100 years.
This curve can be modified by a number of factors:
Multi-field production decline
Most oil is found in a small number of very large oil fields, and there are probably a limited number of them. If they are found at a constant rate until they are all found, the combined production of the fields will yield a curve such as the one at right. Production starts off slowly, rises faster and faster, then slows down and flattens until it reaches a peak. After the peak, it starts to decline faster and faster, and eventually flattens out. Oil production never actually reaches zero, but eventually becomes very low. Factors which can modify this curve include:
United States production decline
Oil production in the United States has followed the theoretical Hubbert Curve fairly closely. U.S. oil production reached its peak in 1970 and by the mid 2000's it had fallen half way down the production curve to a level last seen in the 1940's. In 1950, the United States produced over half the world's oil, but by 2005 that proportion had dropped to about 8%. In 2005, U.S. oil imports were twice as high as domestic production.
Alaska oil field production decline curve
Texas oil field production decline curve.The production peak in 1970 came as a complete surprise to the U.S. government and oil companies, and despite their best efforts, the production decline was irreversible - U.S. oil production never reached the peak of 1970 again. Oil companies have drilled large numbers of oil wells but did not find enough oil to slow the decline. By 1972 all import quotas and controls on U.S. domestic production had been removed. Despite this, and despite the quadrupling of prices during the 1973 oil crisis, Texas oil production peaked sharply in 1973 and has been declining ever since. It now is less than 1/3 of the level it was at its peak.
Despite the fact that Hubbert was only one year out in predicting the peak of U.S. oil production, the actual production curve does deviate from the Hubbert curve in some significant ways:
World oil production
World oil field production curve.World oil production has followed a typical exponential growth curve, which has continued to grow for over a century with only a few dips, but the experience of the United States decline has caused many people to question how long the world can continue to produce steadily increasing amounts of oil. As of the mid-2000's, all of the world's oil producing countries except Saudi Arabia were producing at maximum capacity, and some experts such as Matthew Simmons were questioning whether even Saudi Arabia had any reserve capacity left.
Industry observers and proponents of the peak oil theory have pointed to the similarities between the global production curve in mid-2000's and that of the United States in the 1970's, which peaked without warning and started to decline.
The oil price increases of 2004-2006 were preceded by a decade of production cutbacks in OPEC countries in an attempt to keep prices high despite an oil glut. This is similar to production cutbacks in Texas and other states to maintain prices despite an oil glut in the decade prior to the 1973 oil crisis.
World oil prices reached record highs in the mid-2000's, but new oil did not appear on the market, as the theory of supply and demand would predict. This is reminiscent of price increases in the United States in the 1970's when U.S. oil production started to decline despite record high prices and record drilling by oil companies.
There are serious doubts about whether OPEC countries really have the oil reserves they claim. This is similar to the illusionary oil reserves that U.S. oil companies claimed to have in the decade prior to the 1973 and 1979 oil crisis. In the 1970's, the companies were unable to produce as much oil as they claimed, and production went down instead of up.
Implications of a world peak
A peak in oil production could result in a worldwide oil shortage. While past shortages stemmed from a temporary insufficiency of supply, crossing Hubbert's Peak would mean that the production of oil would continue to decline, and that demand for these products must be reduced to meet supply. The effects of such a shortage would depend on the rate of decline and the development and adoption of effective alternatives. If alternatives were not forthcoming, then the numerous products produced with oil would become scarcer, leading to at the very least lower living standards in developed and developing countries alike, and possibly in the worst case to the collapse of the entire international banking system, which could not hope to sutain itself without the prospect of growth[citation needed]. The political situation would also change dramatically, with potential wars between countries over access to dwindling supplies. Accordingly, inequalities between various countries and regions of the world may become exacerbated. Many believe that the real motivation for the US/UK axis to invade Iraq was in order to protect the long term oil supplies to these nations.
Catastrophe
Economic growth and prosperity since the industrial revolution have, in large part, been due to the use of oil and other fossil fuels. The use of fossil fuels allows humans to participate in takedown, which is the consumption of energy at a greater rate than it is being replaced. Some believe that decreasing oil production portends a drastic impact on human culture and modern technological society, which is currently heavily dependent on oil as a fuel and chemical feedstock. For example, over 90% of transportation in the United States relies on oil.
Some envisage a Malthusian catastrophe occurring as oil becomes increasingly inefficient to produce. Since the 1940s, agriculture has dramatically increased its productivity, due largely to the use of chemical pesticides, fertilizers, and increased mechanisation. This process has been called the Green Revolution. The increase in food production has allowed world population to grow dramatically over the last 50 years. Pesticides rely upon oil as a critical ingredient, and fertilizers require natural gas. Farm machinery also requires oil. Arguing that in today's world every joule one eats requires 5-15 joules to produce and deliver, some have speculated that a decreasing supply of oil will cause modern industrial agriculture to collapse, leading to a drastic decline in food production, food shortages and possibly even mass starvation. It must be noted, however, that most or all of the uses of fossil fuels in agriculture can be replaced with alternatives. For example, by far the biggest fossil fuel input to agriculture is the use of natural gas as a hydrogen source for the Haber-Bosch fertilizer-creation process. Natural gas is used simply because it is the cheapest currently-available source of hydrogen; were that to change, other sources, such as electrolysis powered by solar energy, could be used to provide the hydrogen for creating fertilizer without relying on fossil fuels.
Oil shortages may force a move to lower input "organic agriculture" methods, which may be more labor-intensive and require a population shift from urban to rural areas, reversing the trend towards urbanization which has predominated in industrial societies; however, some organic farmers using modern organic-farming methods have reported yields as high as those available from conventional farming, but without the use of fossil-fuel-intensive artificial fertilizers or pesticides.
Another possible effect would derive from America's transportation and housing infrastructure. A majority of Americans live in suburbs, a type of low-density settlement designed with the automobile in mind. Some commentators such as James Howard Kunstler argue that because of its reliance on the automobile, the suburb is an unsustainable living arrangement; the implications of peak oil would leave many Americans unable to afford fuel for their cars, and force them to move to higher density, more walkable areas. In effect, suburbia would comprise the "slums of the future." A movement to deal with this problem early, called "New Urbanism," seeks to develop the suburbs into higher density neighborhoods and use high density, mixed-use forms for new building projects.
The environment could also be affected. When oil production begins to decline, humanity may increasingly turn to less environmentally friendly energy sources such as coal, of which there are still significant reserves remaining on Earth. This may exacerbate global warming, and health and developmental problems such as cancer and autism.
Criticisms
The current debate revolves around energy policy, and whether to shift funding to increasing fuel efficiency and alternative energy sources such as solar, wind, and nuclear power. One of the most prominent voices warning of a peak in oil production is the geologist Colin Campbell. Campbell's critics, like Michael Lynch, argue that his research data is sloppy. They point to the date of the coming peak which Campbell has changed several times, and has now been pushed back to 2010. However, Campbell and his supporters insist that when the peak occurs is not as important as the realization that the peak is coming, and soon.
Furthermore, the peak oil analysis wholly ignores the fact that oil can be viably extracted from coal, at an estimated cost of $35 per barrel, through the Karrick process, of which substantial reserves remain. Critics argue that large-scale conversion of coal to synthetic oil will reduce the remaining coal reserves from centuries of consumption to mere decades, and that recent experience with developing Canada's tar sands suggests large-scale coal-to-oil conversion requires a massive infrastructure that may take many years to build.
Recession
A more modest scenario, assuming a slower rate of depletion and a smooth transition to alternative energy sources could cause substantial economic hardship such as a recession or depression due to higher energy prices. Historically, there is a close correlation in the timing of oil price spikes and economic downturns. Inflation has also been linked to oil price spikes. However, economists disagree on the strength and causes of this association. The world economy may be less dependent on oil than during earlier oil crises. Conversely, the recessions of the early 1970s and early 1980s were associated with a relatively brief period of somewhat dwindling energy availability; the possible future increase in oil prices might be much higher and last longer. See Energy crisis.
Further reading
Kenneth S. Deffeyes. Hubbert's Peak : The Impending World Oil Shortage, Princeton University Press (August 11, 2003), ISBN 0-691-11625-3. Richard Heinberg. The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies, New Society Press ISBN 0-86571-482-7 Mathew R. Simmons. Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, Wiley (June 10, 2005), ISBN 0-471-73876-X
Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_depletion
End of Wikipedia content
Content Derived from Wikipedia Article on World Oil Reserves
Oil in the ground is not a "reserve" unless it is economically recoverable, since as the oil is extracted, the cost of recovery increases incrementally. The recovery factor (RF) is the percentage of STOOIP which is economically recoverable under a given set of conditions.
Categories of oil reserves
Proven, probable and possible reserves are the three most common categories of reserves. They represent the certainty that a reserve exists based on the geologic and engineering data and interpretation for a given location. The international authority for reserves definitions is generally the Society of Petroleum Engineers. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has, in recent years, demanded that oil companies with exchange listed stock adopt reserves accounting standards that are consistent with conservative industry practice.
Definition of oil reserves
Oil reserves are a primarily a measure of geological risk — of the probability of oil existing and being producible under current economic conditions using current technology. The three categories of reserves generally used are proven, probable, and possible reserves.
Proven Reserves - defined as oil and gas "Reasonably Certain" to be producible using current technology at current prices, with current commercial terms and government consent, also known in the industry as 1P. Some Industry specialists refer to this as P90, i.e., having a 90% certainty of being produced. Probable Reserves - defined as oil and gas "Reasonably Probable" of being produced using current or likely technology at current prices, with current commercial terms and government consent. Some Industry specialists refer to this as P50, i.e., having a 50 % certainty of being produced. This is also known in the industry as 2P or Proven plus probable. Possible Reserves - i.e., "having a chance of being developed under favourable circumstances". Some Industry specialists refer to this as P10, i.e., having a 10 % certainty of being produced. This is also known in the industry as 3P or Proven plus probable plus possible.
Reserve booking
Oil and gas reserves are the main asset of an oil company. Booking is the process by which they are added to the Balance sheet. This is done according to a set of rules developed by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE). The Reserves of any company listed on the New York Stock Exchange — which in practice means virtually every commercial company in the world — have to be stated to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. In many cases these reported reserves are audited by external geologists, although this is not a legal requirement. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rejects the probability concept and prohibits companies from mentioning probable and possible reserves in their filings. Thus, official estimates of proven reserves will always be understated compared to what oil companies think actually exists. For practical puposes companies will use proven plus probable estimate (2P), and for long term planning they will be looking primarily at possible reserves.
Other types of risk also exist: economic risk, technological risk, and political risk. Economic risk is the probability that the oil exists but cannot be produced at current prices and costs. There is a vast quantity of oil in this category, so economists will always be more optimistic than geologists. Technological risk is the probability that the oil exists but cannot be produced using existing technology. Again, there is a great deal of oil and near-oil in this category, such as the world's oil shale deposits. Political risk is the risk that oil exists but cannot be produced because political conditions prevent it. Since most of the world's oil is in politically unstable countries, political risk is usually the biggest risk and the most difficult to quantify.
North and South American reserves
Canada
Canadian conventional oil production peaked in 1973, but oil sands production is forecast to increase to at least 2020Alberta's estimated oil reserves was raised from total conventional oil reserves of around 5 gigabarrels to the much larger figure of around 180 gigabarrels by the inclusion of the Athabasca Oil Sands deposit by the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (AEUB), placing Canada second only to Saudi Arabia. Other estimates (BP Statistical Review of World Energy) place Canada's petroleum reserves in the 17 gigabarrel range, by only counting oil sands under development. Although Alberta contains about 75% of Canadian conventional oil reserves, most of the other provinces and territories, especially Saskatchewan and offshore Newfoundland, hold significant production and reserves.
Estimates of oil sands reserves can be misleading because oil sands contain a semisolid form of oil known as bitumen. Companies only book oil sands as proven reserves after they finish a strip mine or thermal facility to extract them and an upgrader to convert them to synthetic crude oil (syncrude or SCO). On the other hand, the Alberta government bases its reserve estimates on drilling cores and wireline logs from 19,000 wells drilled in the oil sands. Alberta uses the term "crude bitumen" rather than "crude oil" and refers to "established reserves" rather than "proven reserves" to differentiate them from oil company estimates. These estimates did not attract much attention until the prestigous Oil and Gas Journal added them to its estimates of Canada's proven oil reserves, which quadrupled North American reserves at the stroke of a key. Alberta production and Canadian exports are steadily increasing despite the fact that Alberta's conventional oil reserves are almost exhausted.
When oil prices were low, oil sands companies such as Suncor Energy and Syncrude reduced their costs to around US $15/bbl. As a result, the oil price increases of 2004-2006 to over $75/bbl is high enough to cause over $100 billion worth of oil sands projects to be planned and initiated. Alberta oil sands production in 2005 was around 0.4 gigabarrels per year. It is expected to rise to 0.7 gigabarrels per year or 67% of Albertan production by 2010. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers predicts that by 2020, Canadian oil production will be 1.75 gigabarrels per year, of which only 10% will be conventional light and medium crude oil.
The most serious constraint on future development is an historically unprecedented labor and housing shortage in Alberta as a whole and Fort McMurray in particular. According to Statistics Canada, by September, 2006 unemployment rates in Alberta had fallen to record low levels, lower than any other Canadian province or U.S. state, and per-capita incomes had risen to double the Canadian average. In a global context Alberta's economic growth rate was second only to China's.
United States
United States oil reserves peaked sharply in 1970 after the supergiant Prudhoe Bay field was found in Alaska.
United States oil production also peaked in 1970. By 2005 imports were twice production.United States proven oil reserves declined to a little more than 21 gigabarrels by the end of 2004 according to the Energy Information Administration, a 46% decline from the 39 gigabarrels it had in 1970 when the huge Alaska North Slope ('ANS') reserves were booked. Since there have been millions of oil wells drilled in the US and there is nowhere left for an elephant the size of ANS to remain hidden, it appears that US oil reserves are on a permanent downward slide. As oil fields get closer to the end of production, estimates of what is left become more accurate. Consequently, US oil reserve numbers are very accurate compared those of other countries.
United States crude oil production peaked in late 1970 at over 4 gigabarrels per year, but declined to 1.8 gigabarrels per year by early 2006. In fact, production in the fall of 2005 fell to only 1.5 gigabarrels per year as a result of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico — a level not seen since shortly after World War II. At the same time, US consumption of petroleum products increased to over 7.3 gigabarrels per year. The difference was mostly made up by imports, with the largest supplier being Canada, which increased its exports of crude oil and refined products to the US to 0.8 gigabarrels per year at the end of 2005. Imports of oil and products now account for nearly half of the US trade deficit.
The United States has the largest known concentration of oil shale in the world, according to the Bureau of Land Management and holds an estimated 800 gigabarrels of recoverable oil, enough to meet U.S. demand for oil at current levels for 110 years. Oil shale is developable given high enough oil prices, and the technology for converting oil shale to oil has been known since the middle ages. However, the main constraint on oil shale development is probably going to be that Albertan oil sands are only about half as expensive to produce, and the US has full access to oil sands production under the North American Free Trade Agreement NAFTA. In addition, there are environmental concerns about oil shale development. The oil shale areas are semi-arid, in which mine scars last for centuries, and are at the headwaters of several important rivers, notably the Powder River in a region in which water rights are very important. By contrast, the Alberta oil sands are in a largely uninhabited boreal forest that is periodically destroyed by forest fires, and the rivers are very large and flow into the Arctic Ocean. As a result, the oil shales are probably not going to see development until oil sands production is well underway.
In December, 2006, the Bureau of Land Management of the US Department of the Interior issued research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) leases for five oil shale projects in Colorado's Piceance basin.
Mexico
While the government of Mexico claims it has over 100 gigabarrels of oil, as of January, 2006, the prestigious Oil and Gas Journal estimated its proven reserves at only 12.9 gigabarrels. The reason for the discrepancy is that, while the oil may exist in theory, in practice, politics prevents it from being developed. The constitution of Mexico gives the state oil company, PEMEX, a monopoly over oil production, and the Mexican government treats Pemex as a major source of revenue, taking 60% of its revenues in taxes, according to Business Week on 13 Dec 2004 . As a result, Pemex has insufficient capital to develop the resources on its own, and cannot take on foreign partners to supply money and technology it lacks.
Since 1979, Mexico has produced most of its oil from the supergiant Cantarell Field, which is the second-biggest field in the world by production, but which has recently peaked and started a terminal production decline. In 1997, PEMEX started a massive nitrogen injection project to maintain oil flow, which now consumes half the nitrogen produced in the world, but this largely just accelerates depletion rather than adding new reserves.
As for its other fields, 40% of Mexico's remaining reserves are in the Chicontepec Field, which was found in 1926, but which has remained undeveloped because the oil is trapped in impermeable rock. The remainder of Mexico's fields are much smaller, much more expensive to develop, and contain heavy oil that buyers do not want. As a result of concentrating on its one good oil field and ignoring everything else, Mexico's proven reserves have fallen every year for more than a decade, and it has less than 10 years worth of oil reserves at current production levels.
Venezuela
According to the Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), Venezuela has 77.2 billion barrels of proven conventional oil reserves, the largest of any country in the Western Hemisphere. In addition it has non-conventional oil deposits similar in size to Canada's - at 1,200 billion barrels approximately equal to the world's reserves of conventional oil. About 267 billion barrels of this may be producible at current prices using current technology. Venezuela's Orinoco tar sands are less viscous than Canada's Athabasca oil sands – meaning they can be produced by more conventional means, but are buried deeper – meaning they cannot be extracted by surface mining. In an attempt to have these extra heavy oil reserves recognized by the international community, Venezuela has moved to add them to its conventional reserves to give nearly 350 billion barrels of total oil reserves. This would give it the largest oil reserves in the world, even ahead of Saudi Arabia.
Venezuela’s development of its non-conventional oil reserves is mainly limited by political unrest. In late 2002 and early 2003 a strike at the state oil company PDVSA resulted in a dramatic drop in Venezuelan oil production and the firing of most of the oil company’s workers. This has significantly limited its ability to develop and produce oil and in 2006 reports indicated that Venezuela was having to buy oil from Russia to meet its sales commitments to other countries. Venezuela claims its oil production is around 3 million barrels per day, but oil industry analysts and the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimate it to be closer to 2.6 million barrels per day. It is difficult to verify actual production because PDVSA has stopped filing reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, as required as owner of the Citgo gasoline chain. Notwithstanding that, Venezuela continues to be the second or third largest supplier of oil to the United States, with 2/3 of its oil exports going to the U.S.
Middle Eastern reserves
There are varying estimates of how much oil is left in Middle Eastern reserves. Several oil companies and the U.S. Department of Energy state that the Middle East has two-thirds of all the world's oil reserves. Other oil experts, however, argue that the Middle East has two-thirds of only all proven oil reserves, and that the percentage of all oil reserves it has could be much lower than two-thirds. The U.S. Geological Survey says that the Middle East has only between half and a third of the recoverable oil reserves in the world.
Suspicious official estimates of oil reserves from OPEC countries
The OPEC countries decided in 1985 to link their production quotas to their reserves. What then seemed wise provoked important increases of the estimates; in order to increase their production rights. This also permits the obtainment of bigger loans at lesser interest rates. This is a suspected reason for the reserves rise of Iraq in 1983, then at war with Iran.
In fact, Dr. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, a former senior executive of the National Iranian Oil Company, has stated unequivocally that OPEC's oil reserves (notably Iran's) are grossly overstated. In a recent interview he stated that world oil production is now at its peak and predicted that it will fall 32% by 2020.
Declared reserves with suspicious increases (in billion of barrels) Colin Campbell, SunWorld, 80-95
Year Abu Dhabi Dubai Iran Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia Venezuela 1980 28.00 1.40 58.00 31.00 65.40 163.35 17.87 1990 92.20 4.00 93.00 100.00 95.00 258.00 59.00 2004 92.20 4.00 132.00 115.00 99.00 259.00 78.00
The total declared reserves are 701 billion barrels, from which 317.54 are suspicious (the year 2004 was added later).
There is much competition between states in their declaration of oil reserves. For example, Kuwait gave to themselves 90 billion barrels of reserves in 1985, the year of the reserves link. Abu Dhabi and Iran responded with slightly higher numbers, to guarantee similar production quotas. Saddam Hussein, fearing to be left behind by nations he disliked, replied with around 100. Apparently, with all this amount of inflation, Saudi Arabia was forced to reply, two years later, with its own revision.
Other examples suggest the inaccuracy of official reserve estimates:
January 2006, the magazine Petroleum Intelligence Weekly declared that reserves of Kuwait were in fact only 48 billion barrels, of which only 24 billion were "completely proven", backing this statement on "leaks" of official confidential Kuwaiti documents. The value is half of the official estimate.
Shell company announced 9 January 2004 that 20% of its reserves had to pass from proven to possible (uncertain). This announcement led to a loss in the value of the stock; a lawsuit challenged that the value of the company was fraudulently overvalued. Shell later revised its reserves estimates three times, reducing them by 10,133 million barrels (against 14,500 million). Shell's president, Phil Watts, resigned.
As can be seen on the table the reserves declared by Kuwait before and after the Gulf War 1990-1991 are the same, 94 billion barrels, despite the fact that immense oil-well fires ignited by the Iraqi forces had burned off approximately 6 billion barrels.
In 1970, Algeria increased its "proven reserves" estimate (until then 7-8 billion barrels) to 30 billion. Two years later, the estimate was increased to 45 billion. After 1974, the country's estimate was less than 10 billion barrels (as reported by Jean Laherrère).
Pemex (state company of Mexico) in September 2002 decreased its reserve estimate by 53%, from 26.8 to 12.6 billion barrels. Later the estimate was increased to 15.7 billion.
Other examples exist of reserves being underestimated. In 1993, the reserves of Equatorial Guinea were limited to some insignificant fields; the Oil And Gas Journal estimated them at 12 million barrels. Two giant fields and several smaller ones were discovered, but the numbers announced stayed unchanged until 2003. In 2002, the country still had 12 million barrels of reserves according to the journal, while it was producing 85 million barrels in the same year. The reserves of Angola were at 5.421 billion barrels, (three significant numbers, it gives the impression of great precision) from 1994 to 2003, despite the discovery of 38 new fields of more than 100 million barrels each.
Note however that the definition of proven reserves varies from country to country. In the USA, the conservative rule is to classify as proven only the reserves that are being produced. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia classifies as proven reserves known fields not yet in production. Venezuela includes non-conventional oil (bitumens) of the Orinoco in its reserve base.
Saudi Arabia
With one-fourth of the world's proven oil reserves and some of its lowest production costs, Saudi Arabia produces over 4 gigabarrels of oil per year and is likely to remain the world's largest oil exporter for the foreseeable future. However, there are serious political risks involved in Saudi Arabian domination of the world oil market. In spite of recent increases in oil income, Saudi Arabia faces serious long-term challenges, including rates of unemployment of at least 13 percent, one of the world's fastest population growth rates (its population has tripled since 1980), and the need for political and economic reforms.
According to the Oil and Gas Journal, Saudi Arabia contains 262 gigabarrels of proven oil reserves, around one-fourth of proven, conventional world oil reserves. Although Saudi Arabia has around 80 oil and gas fields, more than half of its oil reserves are contained in only eight fields, and more than half its production comes from one field, the Ghawar field.
One challenge for the Saudis in maintaining or increasing production is that their existing fields sustain 5-12 percent annual decline rates, meaning that the country needs new capacity each year to compensate. The challenge is that the Ghawar field, found in 1948, has produced about half its total reserves, and is starting to run into production problems — notably, there are rumors that it is now producing more water than oil. Other Saudi fields are not only smaller, but more difficult to produce. Historically, when Saudi Arabia has run into production problems in other fields, it has simply shut them in and stepped up production in Ghawar, but if Ghawar runs into problems that no longer will be possible.
Since Saudi Arabia is the world's largest producer of oil, their reserves are analyzed very closely and estimates vary on the amount of economically recoverable oil in Saudia Arabia. The raw data is not available to outside scrutiny. The International Energy Agency has predicted that Saudi oil output will double during the next two decades, projecting production of 7 gigabarrels per year in 2020, although this seems unlikely, if only for political reasons.
A dissenting opinion regarding Saudi oil reserves came from Matthew Simmons who claimed in his 2004 book "Twilight in the Desert" that Saudi Arabia's oil production is declining, and that it will not be able to produce more than current levels — about 4 gigabarrels per year. In addition to his belief that the Saudi fields have hit their peak, Simmons also argues that the Saudis may have irretrievably damaged their large oil fields by overpumping salt water into the fields in an effort to maintain the fields' pressure and thus make the oil easier to extract.
Since 1982 the Saudis have withheld their well data and any detailed data on their reserves, giving outside experts no way to verify the overall size of Saudi reserves and output. However, experts question the Saudi claim that recent declines in production are due to lack of demand (which no other producer has experienced), and pointed to the fact that the number of drilling rigs in Saudi Arabia has tripled with no comparable increase in production as disturbingly similar to what happened in Texas when US production peaked and started to decline in the 1970's. This could mean that many Saudi oil wells have peaked and have begun the decline toward the end of their economic usefulness. Only with verifiable data can production and reserves increases or declines be demonstrated.
Iran
Iran has the world's second largest reserves of conventional crude oil at 133 gigabarrels, according to the CIA World Factbook, although it should be noted that both Canada and Venezuela have larger reserves if Non-conventional oil is included. Iran is the second largest oil holder globally with approximately 10% of the world's oil.
Iran averages about 1.5 gigabarrels per year, which is a significant decline from the 6 gigabarrels per year it produced when the Shah of Iran was in power. The United States prohibits imports of oil from Iran, which limits its exposure to an Iranian oil cutoff, but does not reduce the likelihood that an interruption of Iranian oil would cause a spike in world oil prices. American pressure on Iran to renounce Iran's nuclear program makes the possibility of military confrontation quite high, and the political risks of Iranian oil far outweigh any geological ones.
Iraq
Iraq has the fourth largest reserves of conventional oil in the world at 112 gigabarrels. Despite its vast oil reserves and low costs, production has not recovered since the US-led 2003 invasion of Iraq. Constant looting, insurgent attacks, and sabotage in the oil fields have limited production to around 0.5 gigabarrels per year at best. Political risk is thus the main constraint on Iraqi oil production and likely to remain so in the near future.
United Arab Emirates and Kuwait
The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are nearly tied for the fifth largest conventional oil reserves in the world at 98 and 97 gigabarrels, respectively. The UAE produces about 0.8 gigabarrels per year and has about 100 years of reserves at that rate while Kuwait produces about the same amount and also has about 100 years of reserves. Abu Dhabi has 94 percent of the UAE's oil reserves while most of Kuwait's oil reserves are in the Burgan Field, the world's second largest oil field after Saudi Arabia's Ghawar. Kuwait hopes to step up oil production to reach capacity of 4 million bbl/d by 2020, but since Burgan was found in 1938 and is getting very mature, this will be a challenge. Furthermore, according to data leaked from the Kuwait Oil Company (KOC), Kuwait's remaining proven and non-proven oil reserves are only about half the official figure - 48 gigabarrels.
2020 Vision
The US EIA (Energy Information Administration) reduced their forcast for Saudi oil production to 15.4 mb/day in 2020 and Middle East OPEC countries increasing to 35.2 mb/day by 2020 from 20.7 mb/day in 2002 [Internation Energy Outlook 2005 table E1. These estimates were further reduced in the 2006 Annual Energy Outlook, in which Middle East OPEC production was projected to be 29.4/27.0/18.5 mb/day in 2020 assuming $34/$51/$85 oil prices respectively.
Oil supplies
The term oil supplies is sometimes used to mean the same thing as oil reserves. However, Oil reserves refer mainly to oil in the ground that can be recovered economically. Oil supply also includes the oil production and processing facilities and the oil delivery systems that provide oil to the end user. When there is a 'shortage' of supply it is more often a problem of the delivery systems than a failure of reserves. While geologists are sure the world will eventually run out of oil, economists are sure there will always be a price at which supply will meet demand, albeit possibly at a higher price than people would like to pay.
Oil exploration
Arctic basins tend to be richer in natural gas than in oil. The abundance of gas in the Arctic so far from main markets will require moving gas long distances. Problems of ensuring that oil and gas keep flowing freely in arctic subsea pipelines are virtually identical to those experienced at a depth of 8,000 feet in the Gulf of Mexico, where temperatures are at or close to the freezing point (at that pressure) along the seafloor where hydrates can form. Technology for moving oil from the seafloor to the shore is similar to that employed in Norway, and may someday have application in Alaska.
Shell, one of the world's largest oil companies, believes Arctic waters, including those of northern Alaska, hold great potential as an oil and natural gas frontier. Shell sees the Arctic as a very tantalizing opportunity to develop new oil and gas resources and the last remaining frontier. The company's views tend to support studies by academics and agencies that Arctic basins contain 25% of the world's remaining undiscovered resources. Most of these basins are unexplored and undeveloped. Shell recognizes how "difficult and challenging" the social, environmental, and economic aspects will be. Shell believes that technology solutions developed for other areas, such as the deepwater, will have applications in the offshore Arctic.
However, in early 2006, Royal Dutch Shell made a bold move into non-conventional oil when it purchased $465 million worth of leases in northern Canada just outside the Athabasca Oil Sands. Mysteriously, Shell did not assign the property to Shell Canada, which already has a large oil sands operation in the area, but created a new, wholly-owned subsidiary called SURE Northern Energy Ltd. (SURE Northern) to develop the leases. While the area is known to contain large oil deposits, it is not included in current Canadian oil reserves because the geology is harder and more rocky than the sand which characterizes most oilsands projects.
Strategic oil reserves
Many countries maintain government-controlled oil reserves for both economic and national security reasons. Although there are global strategic petroleum reserves, the following highlights the strategic reserves of the top three oil consumers.
The United States maintains a Strategic Petroleum Reserve at four sites in the Gulf of Mexico, with a total capacity of 0.727 gigabarrels of crude oil. The sites are enormous salt caverns that have been converted to store crude oil. The US SPR has never been filled to capacity; the largest amount reached thus far was 0.7 gigabarrels on August 17, 2005, whereafter reserves were drawn down to meet demand in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. This reserve was created in 1975 following the 1973-1974 oil embargo, and as of 2005 it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. At current US consumption rates (over 7 gigabarrels per year), the SPR would supply all normal US demand for approximately 37 days.
China, the second largest consumer of oil after the United States, has begun a plan to build strategic crude reserves as the country's demand for energy continues to grow. The size of this future Chinese strategic petroleum reserve will be in the neighborhood of approximately 0.15 gigabarrels. It has also told its three largest state oil groups to purchase foreign oil holdings to ensure adequate strategic energy supplies to power the country's rapidly growing economy. Separately, Kong Linglong, director of the National Development and Reform Commission's Foreign Investment Department, said that the Chinese government would soon move to establish a government fund aimed at helping its state oil groups purchase offshore energy assets.
Japan, the third largest consumer of oil, has its own state controlled strategic petroleum reserve. According to Japan's Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Japan has state reserves of petroleum for 92 days of consumption and privately held reserves for another 78 days of consumption, for a total of 171 days of consumption. These reserves are particularly important for Japan since they have practically no domestic petroleum production and import at least 95% of their oil.
OPEC countries
Many countries with extensive oil reserves are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC. The members of the OPEC cartel hold about two-thirds of the world's oil reserves, allowing them to significantly influence the international price of crude oil.
Oil reserves by country
Countries with largest oil reserves
As the amount of oil left is an estimate, not a known amount, there are many differing estimates for the amount of oil remaining in different regions of the world. The following table lists the highest and lowest estimates for regions, and countries, with significant oil reserves in gigabarrels (109 barrels), as listed here [10]. The large range of some country's estimates, Canada in particular, stems from factors such as the potential future development of non-conventional oil from tar sands, oil shale, etc.
Country/Region - Lowest estimate - Highest estimate
North America 50.7 - 222.9 Canada 16.5 178.8 United States 21.3 29.3 Mexico 12.9 14.8
Central & South America 76 - 101.1 Venezuela 52.4 361.2 Brazil 10.6 11.2
Western Europe 16.2 - 17.3 Norway 7.7 8.0
Eastern Europe & Former USSR 79.2 - 121.9 Russia 60 72.4 Kazakhstan 9 39.6
Middle East 708.3 - 733.9 Iran 125.8 132.7 Iraq 115 115 Kuwait 99 101.5 Qatar 15.2 15.2 Saudi Arabia1 261.9 264.3 UAE 69.9 97.8
Africa 100.8 - 113.8 Algeria 11.4 11.8 Libya 33.6 39.1 Nigeria 35.3 35.9
Asia and Oceania 36.2 - 39.8 China 15.4 16.0 Australia 1.5 4 India 4.9 5.6 Indonesia 4.3 4.3 World total 1082 1350.7
Countries to be classified
The vast majority of these countries have tiny oil reserves, making classification difficult: a single new field, even very small by world standards, could change everything for one of them.
Americas - Costa Rica, Panama, Jamaica, Bahamas, Suriname, Guyana, Paraguay, Uruguay Europe – Estonia, Serbia, Latvia Africa - Equatorial Guinea, Sahrawi Republic, Western Sahara Middle East – Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, Palestine (West Bank and Gaza Strip) Eurasia and Central Asia - Armenia, Cyprus, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan Rest of Asia - Japan, Taiwan Oceania – Tonga Antarctica - in Antarctica, substantial oil, natural gas and coal reserves may exist, but because of an international treaty, no extraction is allowed
Alternative Fuels
Solar-powered car at a racecourse, capable of travelling up to 140km/hMain article: Alternative fuel Several types of fuels exist that offer alternatives to petroleum. The United States Department of Energy officially recognizes the following alternative fuels:
Alcohols - such as ethanol and methanol are extracted from grains, wood and biomass
Electricity - stores energy in batteries
Hydrogen - is produced by splitting water into oxygen and hydrogen by using electricity
Compressed Natural Gas - is natural gas under high pressure
Liquefied Natural Gas - refrigerates natural gas to very cold levels until it condenses into a liquid
Liquefied Petroleum Gas - consists of a mixture of propane and other similar types of hydrocarbon gasses under low pressure
Synthetic oil - using the Fischer-Tropsch process or Karrick process. Liquids made from Coal - are capable of producing gasoline, diesel fuel and methanol. During World War II Germany, which had limited access to crude oil supplies, manufactured 90 million tons of synthetic oil in 1944
Biodiesel - resembles the characteristics of diesel fuel but is made from plant oil (agriculture, Algaculture) or animal fat Air engine an emission-free piston engine using compressed air as fuel
Transportation Alternatives
Bicycles. Human powered vehicles are the cheapest and most efficient way to move people about. Many countries still move the majority of their people on human powered transport.
Fuel cells. Vehicles-turn hydrogen fuel and oxygen into electricity. They are considered to be zero emission vehicles. Hybrid Vehicles derive their power from gasoline, but use an electric motor in combination with an internal combustion engine for better fuel economy and performance. Newer plug-in hybrid electric vehicles derive a substantial portion of their power from the power grid or solar energy.
Coal. During the nineteenth century, trains, ships, machines and even some cars were run by steam engine, which requires the use of coal. Coal reserves were estimated in 1997 to be 1.04 trillion metric tons.
Solar power. Solar-powered cars have been built, including the Nuna which had an average speed of 103km/h during the World solar challenge solar car race, and a top speed of 140km/h. (However, this vehicle seated one occupant, had a weight less than one fifth that of a typical family-sized car and the performance figures quoted here are based on it having been run mostly in the arid Australian outback with the most expensive type of solar cells available.) Air car powered by an Air engine Electric vehicles such as trains, trams and trolley buses allow the power to be generated separately, removing the need for fuel on the vehicles themselves.
Related Topics
Non-conventional oil Oil exploration Peak Oil Strategic Petroleum Reserve Global strategic petroleum reserves Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
References Adams Neal, Terrorism & Oil (2002, pg.66), ISBN 0-87814-863-9 Various, The Oil Industry of the Former Soviet Union: Reserves, Extraction, Transportation (1998, pg. 24-59), ISBN 90-5699-062-4 Robert J Art, Grand Strategy for America (2003, pg.62), ISBN 0-8014-4139-0 Paul Roberts, "The End of Oil", (2004 p47-p52), Bloomsbury, pbk, ISBN 0-7475-7081-7
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Glossary of Oil & Gas Terms
We have provided below a number of terms related to the energy & alternative energy domains. Use these terms to do further searches on the web!
A – Accumulation, Appraisal Well B - Barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), Block, Barrel, Blow-out, Blow-out Preventer (BOP), Bcf C – Charge, Continuous-type
deposit, Conventional accumulation, Crude Oil, Compressor, Condensate E - E&P, EOR, Equity, Exploratory well F – Field, Fossil Fuel, Farm in, Field, Floater, FPSO H – Hydrocarbon I – Integrated J – Jacket, Jack-up, Joint venture K – Kerogen L - Liquefied Petroleum Gas, Lease, Licence, Log M – Methane, Mmcf, Mmcfd, Mmscfd, Midstream N - Natural Gas, Natural Gasoline, Natural Gas Liquid, Natural Gas Storage O – Oil, OPEC, Operator P - Petroleum, Play, Play area, Play attributes, Plug, P&A (plugged and abandoned), Plateau Level, Platform | ||
